Pustaka Ilmiah Universitas Padjadjaran

Abstrak

Early Warning Detection Of Rice Price Fluctuations In Bandung City Using Time Series Control Chart

Rice prices in Bandung increase from year to year, but the government of Bandung has not had a scientific method for detecting changes in rice price volatility. Statistically, this means that there is a problem concerning the determination of control charts to monitor small shifts and see is there any autocorrelation in the price of rice. This study aims to apply a control diagram for the price of rice so that it can detect a significant change of shift the price of rice in Bandung and get the EWMA control chart to detect a small shift in the process. Implementation of the EWMA control chart and price forecast in 2021 will detect the surge in rice prices significantly. This information is a milestone towards an early warning system of unprecedented restlessness as the main indicator of rice crisis. Rice crises will happen sooner or later, so that accurate information about the prediction of the time for the rice crisis in the city of Bandung, become very urgent. Analysis of rice price movements from time to time, including forecasting in it is an integral part in that context. The results of the study lead to preventive policy to postpone or slow down time rice crisis. Strategic impact is Bandung government will have a clear agricultural strategy oriented in strengthening the resilience of rice.