Pustaka Ilmiah Universitas Padjadjaran

Abstrak

System Dynamics Model Of Sustainable Agriculture: The Case Of Indonesia

Growth, equity, and stability of farming system are recognized as sustainable factors in agricultural sector development. The specific objective of this research are to identify a dynamic feedback relation and to develop a system dynamics model of sustainable agriculture for the case of Indonesia. The proposition is that growth, equity and stability progral as h(::’e been poor,’y and inadequately managed, resulting in many imba!ances situatioi:. The pi oposed sustainable agriculture ?node.; will be presented by reinforcing and balancing feedbacks; assuming that agricultural production affects farmers’ income level and its productivity positively. However, production (with delay) has an effect on productivity in negative way unless ci.ricuhural technolo,D, is used. Increases in production will inci.ease income per capita of farmers which will change their educational levels, technology use, and agricultural productivity. Over the time horizon of interest the higher income will change the average educational level and it will affect the systematic shift of farmers to non farm labor. The study generates a Conceptual model of sustainable agriculture, as a way to gain better understanding of the dynamic relation leading to sustainable agriculture. Although empirical validation has not been established, the study concl:.des i_e: (1) Growth, equity and stability are factors to be measured in the context of the sustainability of agriculture; (2) From the conceptual model, investment in agricultural sector to provide proper capital and technology in the sector was central to the growth of agricultural productivity; (3) la order to achieve equity in economic activities, government intervention is required mainly by establishing and controlling the ratio of the average income in agricultural and non-agricultural sector. This ideal ratio will control the reinforcing loop in the non-agricultural sector, thus economic stability in agricultural sector is maintained. As further study using empirical data is needed to validate the model, extension to a more complex variables along the model justification are required