Pustaka Ilmiah Universitas Padjadjaran

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Dampak Perubahan Pola Curah Hujan Terhadap Tanaman Pangan Lahan Tadah Hujan Di Jawa Barat ( Impacts Of Rainfall Patterns Changes On Rainfed Land Cropping In West Java)

Perubahan iklim dan pemanasan global sangat mempengaruhi perubahan pola curah hujan. Perubahan pola curah hujan tersebut berdampak pada sistem pertanian tanaman pangan lahan tadah hujan. Sehubungan dengan hal itu telah dilakukan penelitian mengenai perubahan pola curah hujan dan dampaknya terhadap sistem pertanian tanaman pangan lahan tadah hujan di Jawa Barat. Penelitian menggunakan data curah hujan dan produksi tanaman pangan yang dianalisis menggunakan model Adaptive Neuro-Fazzy Inference System. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa pola curah hujan di wilayah Jawa Barat pada 30 tahun terakhir mengalami perubahan dan cenderung menurun. Lama musim hujan menjadi lebih pendek dan curah hujan ekstrim (kekeringan atau banjir) semakin meningkat. Lama musim hujan berubah dari 6-7 bulan menjadi 4-6 bulan dan menyebabkan periode masa tanam lebih pendek. Awal tanam mengalami perubahan dan mundur sekitar 1-2 dasarian dari awal tanam sebelumnya yang biasa dilakukan pada dasarian ke 14. Di wilayah Jawa Barat, produksi tanaman padi dan jagung cenderung meningkat sedangkan produksi tanaman kedelai cenderung menurun. Model produksi tanaman pangan hasil analisis ANFIS sangat akurat dan dapat dipergunakan untuk memproyeksikan produksi padi, jagung, dan kedelai.

Climate changes and global warming had a great impacts on rainfall patterns. The rainfall patterns changes can influence on rainfed land cropping system. In relation to that fact, study on change of rainfall pattern and it’s impacts on rainfed land cropping system had been carried out at the West Java. The study based on rainfall and crop production data that was analyzsed by Adaptive Neuro-Fazzy Inference System. The results showed that the pattern of rainfall at West Java region in the last 30 years has changed and tend to decline. Long rainy season becomes shorter and extreme rainfall (droughts or floods) has increase. Long rainy season changed from 6-7 months to 4-6 months and led to a shorter period of growing season. Early planting changed and back about 1-2 dasarian of early planting is usually done in 14th dasarian. In the area of West Java, production of rice and corn trend to increase while soybean production tends to decline. Model production of food crops which were analyzed by ANFIS very accurate and can be used for projecting the production of rice, corn, and soybeans.